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https://repository.uneca.org/entities/publication/3b78f95a-0a08-46c5-be24-0f8791cf8942
Sunday, December 21, 2025
Trends in poverty, vulnerability and inequality in Somalia
The imputed elasticity approach

This report analyzes poverty, vulnerability, and inequality trends in Somalia using an imputed elasticity method to address the lack of post-2022 household data. Results show that poverty remains high at an estimated 56.5% in 2023 and 2024, with only a slight decline projected for 2025. Poverty is most prevalent among rural and nomadic populations, individuals with low education levels, and regions affected by conflict, displacement, and climate shocks. The study also highlights rising vulnerability, with projections indicating that 1.19 to 4.39 million people may fall into poverty in 2025, depending on the vulnerability threshold applied. The findings provide evidence to support Somalia’s Tenth National Development Plan and inform targeted poverty reduction and social protection policies.

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