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1. INTRODUCTION Lake Chad is a very important large body of water in Africa which has immense significance to the basin countries. It constitutes a unique eco-system and a sanctuary for wildlife. Besides being a barrier against desertification it has a socio-economic importance to the region. Most importantly, it occupies a central position in maintaining an eco-hydrologic equilibrium. However, since the prevalence of endemic and persistent drought in the Sahel region in late 60's followed by those in the 70's and 80's, the whole region was devastated and the existence of the Lake itself was threatened. This situation has captured the attention of international community to engage in and take steps towards saving lake Chad and curbing the crisis in the region. Water is one of the vital resources which serve as the most important ingredient to all socio-economic development activities. Since the occurrence of recurrent droughts, in the Chad basin, an increasing water crisis problem has prevailed subsequent to which numerous studies on various aspects of development of the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) and the Sahel region have been made. Most recently a sequence of inter-related studies focusing on combating the effects of drought have been carried out and monographs written thereon. These studies culminated in a Master Plan and Action Program which then led to developing the Strategic Action Plan (SAP). The Master Plan identifies water transfer project to Lake Chad ranking second in terms of priority among a list of 36 projects. The SAP also identified it among the category of priority projects within the 8-year program. This project is now being pursued as a measure to saving Lake Chad and deterring further environmental degradation and desert encroachment. 2. BACGROUND TO THE PRESENT STUDY The work of this study was initially based on a detail review of available information and studies undertaken by various organizations and institutions. Depending on the depth, the method of analysis or references used in previous studies it was noted that various quantitative figures have been used in different documents. In this study therefore, those figures which are most recent or which seem to be more realistic have been adopted. The review and evaluation consisted of all elements which directly or indirectly had a bearing on the water transfer project both in the pre- and post - project implementation phases. A review of the long-term historical evidence of the effects of drought, and changes in rainfall and climate in impacting the behavior and impulse of Lake Chad indicates that the lake has the tendency to recede and that with each new period of extended drought the lake settles around a new equilibrium. Moreover, studies had also indicated that the trend of deterioration was unlikely to be reversed. In fact, it is noted that annual rainfall will remain the same or will decline. Similar forecasts for temperature also confirmed that mean temperatures will remain the same or will be slightly increasing, and that the situation will not improve but could deteriorate significantly. As a result it is noted that inflows into lake Chad have continued to diminish thereby causing a further shrinkage of the lake. Previous studies also reveal that over the last three decades the depletion of water resources has continued with catastrophic effects on the economy, the environment and social life of the population in the region. The decrease in rainfall has been experienced across the east-west belt of Africa from N'djamena to Niamey; and to the west end in Saint Louise. The annual isohyets have shifted by 180km. southward causing upheavals in landscape and human activity. These trends suggest that in order to combat the problem in the LCB, a permanent solution has to be sought. Hence this study is undertaken to make an assessment and evaluation of previous proposals and make recommendations on the most viable alternative. As a step forward in this direction the study has attempted to focus primarily to identifying the following main issues. 3. MAIN ISSUES The main issues have been dealt with in-depth in chapter 2, 4, 7 and 8 of this study. However, for purposes of consolidation the issues are grouped into three categories, namely: a) Issues caused by natural phenomena b) Consequential issues and problems perpetrated by drought, and c) Issues related to institutional, legal, policy and planning. These later category of issues are core elements and are determining factors requiring primary attention for any development to succeed. The Strategic Action Plan (SAP) for sustainable development of the Lake Chad Basin also rightly advocates and outlines the series of actions to be taken in these areas as a prerequisite to launch development programmes. Following is a presentation on the three categorized set of issues. a) Issues Caused by Natural Phenomena Recurrent and persistent droughts in the Sahel and in the Lake Chad Basin have brought about an ecological imbalance in the region. The problem was initially signaled in 1968 followed by the back-to-back droughts of 1972-1974 which in 1983-1985 precipitated in an unprecedented calamity. The drought is considered to be the worst in terms of its devastation and extent of areal coverage. It has resulted in a drop in lake levels to probably the lowest in the past 3500 years. The surface area of lake Chad is reduced from 25,000 Km2 to 2000 km2 and less with subsequent separation of the lake into a northern pool and southern pool. Thus water scarcity is the most prominent issue that has prevailed due to the natural phenomena of drought, climate change and rainfall variability. b) Consequential Issues and Problems Perpetrated by Drought Collateral problems related to the core issues of water scarcity are the collapse of irrigated and recession farming, livestock and fisheries activities which in turn resulted in socio-economic disruption. The situation in the basin as a whole was worsening as the drought persisted and desert encroachment and environmental degradation continued. The eco-system was broken, forests, wildlife and grazing land were destroyed. For example, in the Yaeres floodplains in the Chad basin, since the fall in annual floods affected the size and duration of flooding the alluvial plain which is the backbone of the economy could not generate biological resources such as fish and pasture. As a result, people have been forced to migrate, inducing demographic pressures with new production and development requirements. Arising from the demographic pressure is an acute competition over limited resources which accentuated conflict that has culminated in greater insecurity and social instability. Thus perpetual environmental degradation was set in train and the imbalance in eco-system was further aggravated with the situation in Lake Chad basin (LCB) getting entangled in a vicious circle of deterioration, poverty and hunger. The water balance study of lake Chad has also shown that its water level is sensitive to rainfall conditions thereby impacting the agricultural areas along the Logone and Chari rivers which has increasingly been getting worse. c) Institutional, Legal, Policy and Planning Issues and Problems Whereas the above issues and problems relate to the dynamics of hydroclimatic and ecological aspects; there are also a set of problems constraining development efforts. These include institutional weaknesses, fragmentation of responsibilities among government ministers and departments and lack of clear national policies. The lack of coordination and poor planning for execution, monitoring and evaluation of projects is also a major bottleneck. Other problems include absence of national water laws, the dearth of skilled and experienced human resources and lack of finance. These problems feature in almost all the countries though with varying degrees. They are very prominent in Chad, Niger and the Central African Republic. This Executive Summary outlines the main findings of the study. It provides an overview of the study objectives and reflects on the main issues pertaining to the need for the restoration of Lake Chad. The summary includes information drawn from each of the main issues discussed in the different chapters of this report. Drawing from the issues, it reflects on the way forward to realize the vision for the development of the lake Chad basin. 4. HIGHLIGHTS ON THE WAY FORWARD The complete presentation on the philosophy and the programme of action for the short- and long-term appears in Chapter 11. Other details pertaining to the way forward are available in the different chapters of the report. The presentation here is to highlight some salient features for the way forward as follows. While new systems of water resources management and planning through water conservation and improvement of efficiency are salutary steps to be pursued, these cannot provide a solution to the water crises problem prevailing in the lake Chad basin. The depletion of water resources in the tributaries of Lake Chad and the Lake itself have long reached the limits of sustainable development. There cannot be much water saving to be expected from efficient management as the largest amount of water loss is attributed to evaporation. This aspect is analyzed under the section for "Climate and Rainfall" and under the" Water Balance Study for lake Chad". Based on these facts it is deduced that the conditions in the Lake Chad basin call for measures beyond management of the available water resources in the basin. It requires a major water transfer to the region to restore the lake, improve base flow and channel storage, arrest groundwater recession and falling water table, and enhance groundwater recharge, so that a state of equilibrium may ultimately be attained. Water transfer is viewed to be the option that would provide a solution to the problem. It is also one of the priority areas identified by the countries and the LCBC Regional Council. The Master Plan Study ranks it second in priority in the list of 36 proposed projects. SAP also identifies it among the priority projects in the category of sub-basin development programmes. The water transfer project is intended to restore Lake Chad to its pre-drought condition and to give access to the four countries, namely Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Nigeria who have portions of the Lake water in their part of the country. Restoring Lake Chad would enable reinstating activities such as recession farming, fishing, irrigated agriculture and animal husbandry in which the local population used to be engaged. It would also facilitate communication among countries by allowing year round navigation. The water transfer project is envisaged to deter environmental degradation, enhance environmental and ecosystem equilibrium and reduce migration of people and conflict among settlers and environmental refugees. It is necessary to surmount the problem of the water crisis in lake Chad by diverting water from Oubangui; the major tributary of the Congo/Zaire that is richly endowed with water resources and is located within relatively close vicinity of lake Chad. The Oubangui solution has been identified after a thorough investigation of alternative possibilities. A lot of preliminary work has already gone into it to confirm its technical feasibility. Dam sites for water regulation have subsequently been identified. The study has advanced to the point of tentatively locating the alternative open-canal routes for water transfer by gravity which is also envisaged to provide all season navigation that will open up CAR and enhance the regional communication in the Northern parts of the Republic of Congo Brazzaville, the North of the Democratic Republic of Congo and South of the Republic of Chad. In this regard, it is reckoned that the project would contribute significantly to improving the navigation conditions on the Oubangui which have deteriorated since 1972. This water diversion project has received the support of the riparian countries of the lake Chad basin. In a field mission for this study, out of the four countries visited: Chad, Niger, Central African Republic (CAR) and Cameroon, the first three have expressed a complete and total support and the fourth one, Cameroon has pointed out that its support is at the political and diplomatic level. It appears that in principle, if the detailed feasibility study shows that the project is environmentally sound, economically and technically feasible and sustainable all the countries might eventually support the project. It is necessary that the member States of LCBC make a unified effort to mobilize internal and external resources so as to enable the commissioning of a consulting firm for the feasibility study and engineering design of water transfer project from Oubangui to lake Chad. More details in this aspect is provided in Annex V to this report. Much beyond a decade has lapsed since the issue of saving lake Chad was put on the table at the conference of Ministers of the Environment in November 1989. Any further delay would mean greater calamities and aggravated devastation in the region as a whole. The impact would not be contained within a limited area but could extend to the contagious and adjacent regions. To deter the worst from happening, the study underscores the crucial importance and the urgency of taking necessary action for launching the feasibility study of water transfer project. The implementation of the water transfer project is only a means and not an end in itself. In this perspective it has proposed a series of interdependent allied programs and project activities in two phases. Phase-I comprises of projects that are to be implemented during the first 6-years. These in the main include organizational, institutional, legal, policy and administrative aspects. Along with these are also technical activities for water resources assessment and monitoring; and the feasibility study and engineering design for water transfer from Oubangui basin to Lake Chad. The programme in phase-II which is envisaged to be implemented in the long term of 20-years comprises of (a) regional and sub-regional projects for Lake Chad and its basin, (b) the Komadugou -Yobe sub-basin and (c) the Chari-Logone-El Beid sub-basin as well as the implementation of the water transfer project pending the outcome of the feasibility study. To realize the vision for the way forward, it is essential that a series of interdependent activities including institutional reform and strengthening, legal, policy and planning aspects; activities pertaining to awareness raising and consensus building, establishment and expansion and network for water resources assessment and monitoring have to be undertaken along with the launching of the feasibility study for water transfer during the initial first phase activity. While these activities are fundamental steps in the way forward, these should be followed by implementation of regional and sub-regional programmes outlined for the long-term perspective under the presentation for the way forward as well as in the chapter for the summary, conclusions and recommendations.
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